Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 3.736661 4.096340 4.518413 5.063532 5.771417 6.697840 8.083166
2024-12-29 3.338190 3.796281 4.383250 5.235198 6.541223 8.729024 13.781626
2025-01-05 2.981490 3.444456 4.061386 5.008968 6.599582 9.736877 20.880645
2025-01-12 2.723826 3.175933 3.792653 4.773937 6.524152 10.434343 33.626179
2025-01-19 2.557436 3.007361 3.634660 4.667363 6.626984 11.682157 145.650932
2025-01-26 2.490184 2.964814 3.648375 4.834572 7.330355 15.957348 NaN
2025-02-02 2.457828 2.965655 3.723618 5.121901 8.484476 28.882771 NaN
2025-02-09 2.378947 2.890721 3.669318 5.155699 9.037926 52.887487 NaN
2025-02-16 2.315082 2.832218 3.633764 5.217593 9.743841 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.211845 2.707660 3.477533 5.003889 9.406105 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.158065 2.654822 3.436771 5.028037 9.970616 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.102094 2.595122 3.378937 5.005131 10.360189 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.026266 2.503878 3.265212 4.853090 10.168778 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.001378 2.490261 3.284990 5.009228 11.598702 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.928397 2.397634 3.158779 4.802854 10.988015 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.858502 2.307526 3.033007 4.587491 10.274313 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.809248 2.248211 2.959089 4.489505 10.180584 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.797601 2.247388 2.988629 4.643147 11.678626 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.798695 2.266596 3.055597 4.905977 14.678838 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.772002 2.239594 3.034974 4.936796 16.028367 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.749609 2.218586 3.024121 4.993178 18.020220 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.701915 2.154533 2.928163 4.798209 16.381423 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.679393 2.131192 2.908998 4.820282 17.882765 NaN NaN